Dollar Index has risen past 108 after the news that Trump was set to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. While above 107.70/50, the rise can get extended towards 109 as well. Euro is headed towards immediate support around 1.0300-1.0250. EURINR is falling within its broad range of 91-89. USDJPY and EURJPY are rising as expected and can head towards 153/54 and 160 respectively. AUDUSD and Pound can remain ranged within 0.63-0.61 and 1.26-1.23 respectively in the near term. USDCNY on a strong break past 7.30, can test 7.35 on the upside. USDINR above 87.50, can rise towards 88 in the near term.
The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply on Friday after the jobs data release. The US Unemployment rate fell to 4% in January from 4.1% in December. This could leave the Fed to keep the rates unchanged for some more time. That in turn gave a push for the yields to go up. The supports have held very well on the yields. A further rise from here can take the yields further higher. It will also reduce the danger of seeing a deeper fall that we had warned about on Friday. The German yields remain lower and stable. The view remains bearish to see more fall from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply within its range after the RBI meeting on Friday. The RBI cut the repo rates by 25-bps to 6.25% as expected. The sideways range on the 10Yr GoI is intact for now. Eventually we expect the yield to make a bullish breakout of the range.
The Dow Jones has declined within the 45000-44000 range, potentially forming a double top. A break below 44000 would confirm the pattern, opening downside towards 43000. DAX dropped below 21800, failing to breach 22000, which would further weaken towards 21000. Nifty fell as expected and is now approaching support at 23400-23300. A rebound from this zone could take it back toward 23800. Nikkei remains below 39000.While under this level, a decline to 38500-38000 is possible. Shanghai has moved above 3300 and continues to rise, facing resistance at 3320. A break above this level could extend gains toward 3350-3400.
Crude prices could rise but face rejection from near-term resistances to see a fallback in the next few sessions. Gold could fall from crucial resistance and head towards $2850-$2800, while Silver could range between $33.50-31.90 in the coming sessions. Copper needs to extend its rise above $4.6 to head towards 4.7/4.8 else can fall back below 4.6 to fall towards $4.5/4.4 soon. Watch price action at 4.6. Natural Gas may test $3.5-$3.6 before turning bearish towards $3.4-$3.2/3.00.
